Integrated Traffic Model (ZMR)

In this section you will learn:

What is the role of the Integrated Traffic Model in the Horizontal Timetable Project?

What is the Integrated Traffic Model and what is its structure?

How are forecasts performed in the Integrated Traffic Model?

What are the rules for accessing the Integrated Traffic Model?

Integrated Traffic Model in the Horizontal Timetable Project

The fundamental conceptual and analytical work on timetables is conducted in the CPK Passenger Transport Model (PMT). The Integrated Traffic Model in the Horizontal Timetable project is used to evaluate (verify) railway timetables and ensure consistency with strategic planning regarding transport infrastructure. Timetables iteratively developed in Passenger Transport Model are imported into the Integrated Traffic Model to verify service assumptions and assess the consistency of results between models.

How the Integrated Traffic Model is Constructed

The Integrated Traffic Model is a strategic planning support tool and a crucial element in fulfilling the European Commission’s basic condition for the 2021-2027 Programming Period, under which Poland plans to secure funds for further transport infrastructure development.

It is a model built, maintained, and developed by the Centre for EU Transport Projects (CUPT) that provides comprehensive support to Polish EU fund beneficiaries in the preparation and implementation of transport investment projects. CUPT plays a vital role in ensuring that Poland’s transport infrastructure aligns with European Union standards and requirements. By leveraging this model, Poland can strategically plan and execute projects that enhance connectivity and efficiency.

The Integrated Traffic Model is a multimodal passenger model that reflects the Annual Average Daily Traffic between all municipalities in Poland, divided into individual and public transport, which includes railway and bus lines. During the computation process, the mutual interaction of competing modes of transport is considered. This is a key factor from the perspective of traffic forecasting, as it allows for parallel consideration of road and railway investments. By accurately modelling these interactions, the Integrated Traffic Model aids in making informed decisions that optimise the balance between different transport modes, ultimately enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of Poland’s transport network.

In the mutual interaction of different modes of transport, key aspects that influence travelers include:

Travel distance

Travel time

Monetary costs incurred

The model serves as a tool particularly for:

Supporting decisions on strategic programmes and their optimisation

Reflecting the passenger perspective and responses to the current state of transport networks

Analysing passenger traffic results on the forecast network

Testing scenarios for network development and socio-demographic changes

The Integrated Traffic Model Structure

The Integrated Traffic Model consists of a supply layer and a demand layer.

The supply layer includes the road network and railway network along with the public transport network, i.e., public transport stops, railway and bus lines, and the sequence of stops and travel times between them. In the Integrated Traffic Model, the public transport network is based on the frequency of service rather than exact departure times from stops, using the average interval between services. This approach simplifies implementing changes and planning new connections in the future.

The road network reflects roads in Poland – from motorways and expressways to national, regional, county, and municipal roads. Road sections are described by class, manager, cross-sections, and, most importantly, speed under free-flow conditions. Similarly, the railway network reflects the railway lines in Poland. Sections are parameterised by maximum transit speeds. Planned railway sections are also encoded according to strategic plans, described by name, year of completion, and the maximum speed achievable on that section. The railway network in the Integrated Traffic Model is imported directly from the CPK Passenger Transport Model.

Public transport lines encoded on road and railway sections include local buses, long-distance buses, long-distance railways, and regional railways.

The model specifies 2,875 traffic analysis zones such as:

Municipalities, with selected cities additionally divided

Point zones:

- Airports

- Seaports

- Intermodal terminals

- Border crossings

Traffic analysis zones are described by explanatory variables such as:

Population (pre-working, working, post-working)

Number of jobs (trade and services, other sectors)

Number of school and university places

Number of accommodation facilities

Number of households

Vehicle ownership rate

The population figures, both for the base year and forecast years, include migrants, who constitute a significant proportion of the population in Poland and consequently impact the transport network.

The demand model reflects travel demand within Poland on an average day of the year. Using appropriate assumptions for mathematical formulas, it can represent the number of trips and point-to-point relations divided by available means of transport. A key element of the demand model is mobility indicators, which determine the average daily number of trips per person.

The demand model is built on a four-stage approach, dividing the decision-making process about travel into four stages:

Trip Generation – The need to undertake a trip

Trip Distribution – Choice of destination and trip purpose

Mode Choice – Choice of mode of transport

Route Assignment – Choice of travel route

Forecasts in the Integrated Traffic Model

In forecasting models, transport behaviours are transferred and calibrated based on the base model. This approach allows for demonstrating responses to supply changes and socio-demographic changes, such as an ageing population.

These forecasts enable the analysis and planning of new investment options and the strategic development of the country’s transport infrastructure.

The Integrated Traffic Model forecasting models are primarily developed for the years 2030, 2040, and 2050 and are designed to answer “What if?” questions. It is also possible to generate a forecast scenario for any given year and transport network development assumptions. Below is an example of such a question in the context of railway transport.

What if we…	Actions and Effects in the Model
… upgraded the existing infrastructure?	Increasing the maximum speed on a line/section Increasing the frequency of services Automatic updating of travel times between stops Increase in the number of rail passengers as a result of calculations
… revitalised the station?	Selected trains stopping at the station Improved rail accessibility for passengers Increase in the number of rail passengers as a result of calculations
… built a new line?	Coding new lines with stops and parameters Developing assumptions for new routes (routes, serviced stops, service frequency) Developing assumptions for existing routes (extensions, rerouting) Increase in the number of rail passengers as a result of calculations
… optimized all of the above?	Creating scenarios, e.g.: launching new connections increasing/decreasing service frequency including stations/stops in services Recalculating models Analysing results to find optimal solutions

The results of the Integrated Traffic Model are illustrated in the figure below, showing traffic intensity for the years 2023 and 2050, divided by vehicle categories.

Rules for Accessing the Integrated Traffic Model

The Integrated Traffic Model was developed with public funds, including EU co-financing. Both the base model for 2023 and the forecasting models for 2030, 2040, and 2050, along with the technical report, are available free of charge to interested parties under a licensing agreement. More information about the Integrated Traffic Model can be found on the website: www.cupt.gov.pl/centrum-unijnych-projektow-transportowych/zintegrowany-model-ruchu/.