In this section, you will learn: 

• What is the general setting for creating the Horizontal Timetable? 

• What tools are used in the Horizontal Timetable development? 

The development of the Horizontal Timetable involves a multi-stage process where train routes are iteratively shaped based on passenger traffic forecasts and capacity utilization analysis. Specialist engineering tools used include the Passenger Transport Model (PMT) for forecasting passenger traffic and preliminary timetable design on distance diagrams with accuracy to the axis of the traffic post, and the Railway Microsimulation Model for timetable design with precision to each track and signal. 

The Horizontal Timetable train route network is developed based on projected passenger flows, obtained through simulations conducted in the Passenger Transport Model (PTM). This model includes the target infrastructure network for all modes of transport under scrutiny. The forecast determines the daily number of trips between specific locations across various types of transport: rail, individual, long-distance bus, and air transport. 

Work on the Horizontal Timetable begins with creating a predictive travel matrix (the spatial distribution of trips between specific locations) based on a forecast that disregards any train timetable constraints. Omitting these constraints at this step allows for assessing the maximum traffic potential on the railway network. The travel matrix is one of the elements considered in the initial iteration of the long-distance train route network. 

Next, forecasts that incorporate the train timetable are created for specific time horizons (years). In multiple iterations conducted in the PTM, global and individual route forecasts are checked for passenger flows, average train occupancy, operational work (train-km, vehicle-km), transport work (passenger-km, passenger-hours), and key performance indicators, such as load factor (LF) and revenue and cost per available seat kilometer (RASK/CASK). 

When forecasting passenger traffic in the PTM, it is necessary to incorporate the planned future parameters of the Polish railway network, including new lines being built by CPK and existing lines being upgraded by PLK S.A., for the period 2031-2050. The planned network is defined by strategic documents from the Council of Ministers, the Ministry of Infrastructure, and PLK S.A. In addition to the anticipated railway network development, the road network (motorways and expressways) is also considered. This approach determines the modal split—the percentage of trips made using each transport mode—based on achievable travel times in each forecast. It enables precise analysis of the competitiveness between different transport modes and maps routes according to the largest identified flows of potential passenger movements. 

The procedure facilitates optimal coordination of train routes and preliminary examination of the capacity utilization of railway lines based on planned future technical parameters, including maximum speeds, number of tracks, and the power supply system. 

Next, train movement diagrams are developed based on the calculated travel times. This allows for generating a consistent clock-face timetable with fixed train routes, stops, and frequencies (e.g., every half hour, hour, or two hours), ensuring a high degree of connectivity at transfer hubs. 

The timetable is designed using specialized software. Initially, this is done through macrosimulations in the Passenger Transport Model (PTM) using PTV Visum. This allows for not only obtaining passenger transport forecasts but also efficiently testing different timetable options and designing time-distance graphs based on the calculated travel times, depending on the type of rolling stock used. 

The next step is to refine the projected timetable using the Railway Microsimulation Model (RMM). At this stage, it is possible to detail individual tracks on sections and stations, switches, signals, and the traction characteristics of rolling stock. This allows for the design of highly accurate movement diagrams. The microsimulation model facilitates the analysis of the occupancy of individual block sections and the automatic detection of conflicts between trains, significantly increasing timetable precision. The refinement of the projected timetable in the RMM is divided into two phases. The first phase focuses on reviewing the timetable at key railway nodes. The second phase verifies traffic on sections with mixed traffic where long-distance passenger and freight trains are planned. As of the second quarter of 2024, the model for the first phase has been completed, covering the railway nodes of Warsaw-Łódź, Kraków-Katowice, Wrocław, Poznań, Szczecin, and Gdańsk-Gdynia. 

In summary, adopting this methodology in the development of the Horizontal Timetable allows for relatively quick iterative testing of the timetable on a “macro” scale while simultaneously verifying its feasibility on a “micro” scale. This approach also facilitates developing proposals for necessary railway infrastructure changes. The final Horizontal Timetable obtained through the Passenger Transport Model (PTM) can also be applied to other forecasting models for the purpose of strategic and operational analyses. 

The designed train timetable and traffic forecasts, including occupancies on individual sections of railway lines, enable rolling stock analysis. For each train route, it is necessary to determine the required rolling stock capacity and its basic technical and operational parameters, such as traction, maximum speed, and representative rolling stock type. This allows for the preparation of rolling stock schedules, assigning specific units to specific train services in the timetable. Based on this, it is possible to determine the demand for specific rolling stock types and to preliminarily plan the allocation of maintenance facilities and sidings. 

For the stability and reliability of the Horizontal Timetable, it is crucial to consult key stakeholders, such as regional and metropolitan transport authorities and potential long-distance train operators, including international entities. International consultations are also needed to coordinate train routes and timetables with neighbouring countries, aiming to agree on transport services and timetable solutions. If a transport authority does not commit to the required service level, it is advisable to adopt a higher level of service in the Horizontal Timetable, allowing for future expansion as the authority’s financial capacity improves. Additionally, stakeholders will learn about the principles of the passenger transport market post-2030. Consultations with potential train operators are essential to review the economic analyses of individual train routes, including their commercialization potential, and discuss their grouping into tender packages.