Designing train routes to include some with commercial operation potential, alongside PSO lines, is essential for creating a coherent network of connections across Poland. Similar approaches have been successfully implemented in other markets, such as Spain. For more information, refer to the section: How Others Plan Train Timetables.
New Opening
Over the next decade, the Polish railway sector is poised for significant changes. These changes will be driven by the liberalization of transport in accordance with EU regulations known as the Fourth Railway Package, the inauguration of services on newly constructed high-speed lines, and the need to enhance the transport accessibility of long-distance services.
While these changes offer a significant opportunity to improve the appeal of the passenger rail sector in line with societal needs and expectations, they pose a challenge for the industry, necessitating proper preparation to adapt and fully capitalize on these opportunities.
The first catalyst for these changes is the liberalization of rail transport, driven by the principles of the Fourth Railway Package and the expiration, in December 2030, of the framework agreement for public service provision in domestic and international rail transport between the Ministry of Infrastructure and PKP Intercity S.A. Future operators of subsidized transport (the so-called PSO – public service obligation) will be selected through competitive tenders. Additionally, it is anticipated that some of the currently subsidized transport will be operated commercially without state compensation. Commercial transport will also be stimulated by improvements in the technical parameters of the Polish railway network and the introduction of market competition. Competitive mechanisms are expected to increase the number of long-distance rail connections and reduce ticket prices on major routes without additional budgetary involvement. More information can be found in the section: Market Liberalization and HRJ.
The other key factor shaping the future of rail in Poland is the construction of new high-speed lines by CPK, which, combined with the upgrade of key existing railway sections by PLK S.A. (the Polish railway infrastructure manager), will significantly reduce travel times on many domestic and international long-distance routes. High-speed line connections will extend beyond the infrastructure of these lines, creating a network effect for residents in many regions of Poland. However, reduced travel time is one of the benefits of modern infrastructure. The increased capacity on high-speed lines will stimulate the liberalisation of the Polish rail transport market. Furthermore, by shifting some long-distance routes to high-speed lines, additional capacity will be created on existing lines, allowing them to accommodate more regional, agglomeration, and freight trains. Therefore, the beneficiaries of high-speed rail are not limited to the customers of fast trains; many more people will indirectly benefit from these changes.
The third aspect is the growing social demand for an appealing transport offer that provides better access to long-distance services. In the regional transport segment, there is a significant transport exclusion, as many towns suffer from a lack of connections due to their scarcity or complete absence, hindering convenient and flexible travel. The minister in charge of transportation is primarily responsible for long-distance transport, which forms the “backbone” of connections within the country. It is assumed that counties (county seat cities) should serve as the base for long-distance connections, with the system facilitating seamless travel by public transport between them.
However, it will not be feasible to create high-frequency long-distance rail connections everywhere, nor does railway infrastructure exist in all areas (though there is justification for its reconstruction or construction). Therefore, according to the Horizontal Timetable assumptions, each county in the country will be included in the long-distance connection network either directly or through coordinated regional trains or buses. This will ensure smooth transfers to long-distance connections and guarantee that they do not compete with regional ones. The national interconnectivity system will form the basis for regional systems created by the regional authorities (voivodeship marshals). During the Horizontal Timetable consultations, the responsibility and level of support for feeder rail or bus connections will be determined jointly with the regional authorities.
The above conditions will positively impact the rail transport system, provided it is adequately prepared, which requires proper coordination of all elements. Therefore, a systematic approach to shaping the network of connections is necessary. The timetable for long-distance, regional, and agglomeration trains must be integrated and based on a clock-face schedule. This timetable will be developed within the Horizontal Timetable Project in cooperation with all key stakeholders. The tasks carried out within this project will not be limited to preparing the timetable but will also include a range of actions related to adapting laws to new principles. Developed based on traffic forecasts and capacity analyses, stable for years, and consulted with relevant stakeholders, the assumptions of the Horizontal Timetable should become the foundation for organizing and planning the entire railway sector in Poland.
Vision
The Horizontal Timetable is a comprehensive, long-term management concept for timetabling across Poland. The goal is to optimize the advantages of railway line upgrades carried out by the Polish infrastructure manager PLK S.A. and the construction of new high-speed rail lines by CPK. This modern tool is specifically designed to meet the needs of passengers.
The Horizontal Timetable will be developed for the timetables of 2030/31 – 2039/40 with a perspective until 2049/50. Why such a long horizon?
By 2035, the completion of the new high-speed line “Y” connecting Warsaw – CPK – Łódź – Wrocław/Poznań will significantly enhance the effectiveness of the railway network in Poland. By 2030, upgrades to the Central Railway Main Line to support speeds of 250 km/h, the Rail Baltica project, and numerous other projects by the Polish infrastructure manager PLK S.A. under the EU 2021-2027 programming period will also be completed. These investments will enable competitive travel times in comparison with the road transport. In addition, they are expected to increase the capacity of the railway network, facilitating the expansion of passenger rail services. The Horizontal Timetable will support this development in an evolutionary manner, providing passengers with a consistent schedule over the years and ensuring that each new timetable does not disrupt previously implemented solutions.
Additionally, in accordance with the requirements of the Fourth Railway Package, starting from the 2030/2031 timetable, railway passenger services under public service obligations (PSO) will be provided by operators selected through competitive tenders. The tender procedure will allow any interested train operator to participate in a simple, non-discriminatory, and transparent manner. New PSO contracts are likely to be concluded for 10 years, lasting until 2040. Therefore, the Horizontal Timetable, prepared for at least 10 years, will serve as the basis for the tendering process. You can read more about the market opening for competition in a separate section.
The perspective of the year 2050 allows for shaping the Polish railway network, particularly in light of anticipated demographic changes. This long-term horizon is also mandated by EU requirements for preparing cost-benefit analyses (CBAs), which are essential for securing funding for investment projects.
SERVICE AND TIMETABLE ASSUMPTIONS
The Horizontal Timetable will be primarily based on passenger traffic forecasts to determine train routes, frequency, stops, and the type and capacity of rolling stock, in line with the anticipated passenger volumes. At the same time, the Horizontal Timetable will align with the capacity of railway lines. Initially, it will adapt to the existing infrastructure, but in the long term, the timetable assumptions will guide the development of final infrastructure solutions.
The Horizontal Timetable aims not only to meet transport needs by aligning with forecasted travel patterns but also to be convenient for passengers. In practice, public transport competes with individual transport not only in terms of travel time and cost. Therefore, “convenience” should address aspects that, if neglected, could make choosing rail transport unattractive, despite short travel times or low ticket prices. From the timetable’s perspective, these aspects include:
REGULAR CYCLE
Trains running at regular intervals, with “even” minute endings. This makes the timetable easy for passengers to remember and understand, and simplifies operational management for the train operator
CLEAR TRAIN ROUTES
Trains should have clearly specified routes (similar to urban transport) and be designated with an alphanumeric symbol.
CONNECTION SYSTEM AT HUB STATIONS
This will finally enable the railway to operate as an integrated system, ensuring comfortable transfers. Implementing organizational procedures for handling missed connections is also essential. However, it should be noted that with frequent (dense) timetables, the inconvenience of missed connections is mitigated by relatively short waiting times for the next train in the same direction.
STABLE SERVICE ASSUMPTIONS
They should be agreed upon between key stakeholders (primarily between passenger rail transport providers and the railway infrastructure manager). This will allow for the development of a long-term concept, where changes will result from the natural evolution of the network, enabling passengers to develop appropriate transportation habits.
GUARANTEED FREQUENCIES
The desired quality standard in the Horizontal Timetable is for a given train route is:
– For long-distance traffic, the core network should have trains running at least every one or two hours. Lower frequencies, such as every four hours, are acceptable towards the end of the route to directly serve smaller towns and, as an exception, on lines connecting less populated areas.
- For regional and suburban traffic, generally every half hour, hour, or two hours throughout the day.
By coordinating individual routes, better frequencies can be collectively offered on certain railway sections, such as having long-distance services run every hour or even every 30 minutes. Ideally, for regional traffic to and from major regional centers, the infrastructure’s capacity should support a frequency of no less than once per hour during peak times to avoid creating undesirable “gaps” (for example, with a frequency of “only” every two hours, trips could be scheduled before 6:00 AM, 8:00 AM, and 10:00 AM or before 7:00 AM, 9:00 AM, and 11:00 AM, causing “gaps” at other times).
REGULAR SERVICE INTERVALS
The expected quality standard in the Horizontal Timetable is to ensure that connections are provided regularly throughout the day and week. This is particularly important for regional and urban traffic, where services should be available both early in the morning (for commuting to work or returning from shift work) and late in the evening (for returning from shift work or accessing services and cultural amenities in regional centers). Maintaining regularity is also important outside peak hours (for accessing services in regional centers, such as healthcare). The goal is for passengers to use public transport not only for daily commuting but also for other travel purposes, including non-essential trips. This translates to good service standards for train operations on Saturdays, Sundays, and holidays as well.
SERVICE RELIABILITY
It is desirable for the created service network to be resilient to delays and prevent their transfer and accumulation. This requires adequate structuring of train routes and careful timetable design.
TRANSPORT ACCESSIBILITY STANDARD
The Horizontal Timetable should establish a minimum standard for rail service accessibility. This entails adopting a consistent national principle ensuring that each county is systematically connected with a minimum service frequency provided by the relevant transport provider. The network of connections should align with projected travel patterns based on the settlement network. Rail services in towns should address actual transport needs and do not always need to be long-distance trains. Instead, they can include attractive regional trains to/from the regional capital or the nearest hub, offering convenient transfers to long-distance trains.
Benefits
The Horizontal Timetable Project for 2031-2040 will form the foundation for updating the sustainable development plan for public transport indomestic and international passenger rail services, under the jurisdiction of the Minister of Transport.
In this way, the Horizontal Timetable Project will provide a framework for organizing tenders for public service obligation (PSO) transport services. Additionally, it will identify which rail lines (train routes) can be operated commercially, without state subsidies.
This approach will implement market liberalization, understood as competition among various rail operators for PSO contracts and among train operators in the commercial market. It will open up the long-distance transport system to entities other than PKP Intercity (the incumbent Polish passenger train operator). Expected benefits for passengers include improved service quality (understood not only as the comfort of rolling stock but also the number of available routes) and lower ticket prices.
EXPECTED HORIOZNTAL TIMETABLE BENEFITS:
Market liberalization in long-distance transport, driven by competition between train operators, will decrease the costs of operating PSO routes and reduce ticket prices on commercial lines, including high-speed rail.
Implementing a guaranteed train frequency standard will improve service reliability.
Clear guidelines for the infrastructure manager PLK S.A. and train operators to achieve convenient train connections at hubs will facilitate travel and ensure that transfer connections are comfortable and safe.
Specifying precise requirements for the infrastructure manager PLK S.A. regarding infrastructure maintenance based on the train timetable will allow for stable and competitive train travel times over the years.
A thoughtfully designed and consistent network of train routes over the years will allow for efficient use of railway line capacity and the development of timetables that meet passenger needs.
Market Liberalization and the Horizontal Timetable
The Horizontal Timetable aims to facilitate the liberalization of the rail passenger transport market as part of the EU’s Fourth Railway Package implementation in Poland. This not only entails selecting operators through tenders for routes operated under public service obligations (PSO) but also encouraging competition among train operators within the same transport corridor.
The Horizontal Timetable, as an all-encompassing solution for the entire railway infrastructure and its services, will also set the conditions for the commercial operation of the most profitable routes, including high-speed lines. In practice, these services will be conducted on routes predefined by the infrastructure manager and allocated through an open, non-discriminatory, and competitive process. The assumptions for these predefined routes and the market conditions for commercial services will be discussed with potential train operators, ensuring the development of solutions that are appealing and acceptable to all stakeholders, including the operators.
Where there is commercial potential, there should be enough predefined train routes to enable at least two operators to offer services, and for the most attractive corridors, even three. This would foster real competition for passengers on these routes, resulting in lower ticket prices and higher service quality. Additionally, the mechanism of predefined train routes, along with contractual conditions for their availability, would ensure oversight by the Minister of Transport. These conditions could include the desired number of trains per day or their frequency, the necessity to serve off-peak connections, and the requirement to service specific commercial points with lower commercial potential but significant for the overall consistency of the offer.
MINISTRY OF INFRASTRUCTURE
The governmental administrative body responsible for shaping and implementing state policy on the Polish transport system ensures that citizens have access to modern infrastructure and high-quality transport services within a sustainable transport system. It is the formal owner and main recipient of the Horizontal Timetable Project.
CENTRALNY PORT KOMUNIKACYJNY SP. Z O. O.
A special-purpose company that has been set up to construct a new airport and high-speed rail lines in Poland. CPK is integral to the horizontal timetable process, as it formulates project assumptions and collaborates with infrastructure manager PKP Polskie Linie Kolejowe S.A. to jointly produce the final horizontal timetable. CPK is also responsible for overseeing the project to ensure its proper and timely execution, as well as testing the Passenger Transport Model against the train timetable assumptions. Furthermore, in partnership with PKP Linie Kolejowe S.A., CPK is developing a Railway Micromodelling Model for the entire Polish railway network, which is used for capacity analysis.
PKP POLSKIE LINIE KOLEJOWE S.A.
The national railway infrastructure manager is responsible for capacity allocation on the Polish railway network, train operations management, infrastructure maintenance, and investment processes on existing railway lines. In the Horizontal Timetable process, it shares responsibility for preparing the project’s detailed assumptions and, together with CPK, handles the technical work. In the future, it will implement these assumptions by allocating capacity according to the Horizontal Timetable. In collaboration with CPK, it is developing the Railway Micromodelling Model for the entire railway network in Poland, used for capacity analysis.
CENTRE FOR EU TRANSPORT PROJECTS
An entity responsible for managing European funds for infrastructure investments in Poland across various sectors, including road, rail, air, urban, maritime, inland, intermodal transport, and road safety. In the preparation of the Horizontal Timetable, it aids in evaluating traffic forecasts using its Integrated Traffic Model tool.
OFFICE OF RAIL TRANSPORT
Supports the President of the Office of Rail Transport, who acts as the central administrative authority with tasks defined by the Railway Transport Act. This office serves as both the national safety authority and the national railway transport regulator, ensuring compliance with EU regulations on safety, interoperability, and railway transport regulation. In the Horizontal Timetable process, it ensures that the proposed and implemented solutions adhere to EU and national laws, specifically ensuring that they do not discriminate against any current or potential market participants.