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Review of County Accessibility 

The information presented here pertains to the working version of the Horizontal Timetable as of 16 July 2024. Due to ongoing project work and the planned consultation process, the adopted solutions will undergo further modifications. This working version is provided to ensure a transparent process for the development of the Horizontal Timetable. The current list of commercial stops does not represent a commitment by the Minister responsible for transport to serve these locations but rather acts as a starting point for planned consultations. More information about the consultation process can be found in the “Consultation Plan” section.

For the 2034/2035 Horizontal Timetable and its associated network of commercial stops, the accessibility of the long-distance rail system from and to county towns has been assessed. This assessment includes stops made by Intercity trains (KDP and Ex) and InterRegio trains (P), organised by the relevant transport minister. Cities serving as county seats were used as reference points, assuming they are the primary urban centres within each county area.

For the purposes of the analysis, counties were classified based on whether access to the system is available:

  • In the county seat city (direct access)
  • Within the county area but outside the county seat city
  • Outside the county area

 

However, this classification is insufficient. The distance from the county seat to the long-distance train stop is also crucial. There are instances where the distance is short even though the station is outside the county (e.g., Chełmno County and Terespol Pomorski station), and cases where the distance is long despite the station being within the county (e.g., Węgrów County and Łochów station). Therefore, when access was available outside the county seat, additional classification criteria were used, including:

  • Travel time to a station offering long-distance connections – a threshold of 30 minutes was adopted (based on publicly available mapping services)
  • Access via regional rail or road

 

All 314 land counties and 66 cities with county rights, 380 in total, were considered.

The analysis indicates that, according to the currently accepted solutions for the 2035 horizon:

  • 248 counties have direct access to long-distance trains in the city serving as the county seat
  • 91 counties have access to long-distance trains from their administrative centre via regional trains, of which:
    • 36 counties within 30 minutes (7 within their area, 29 outside their area)
    • 55 counties in more than 30 minutes (outside their area)
  • 41 counties have access to long-distance trains from their administrative centre via road, of which:
    • 23 counties within 30 minutes (9 within their area, 14 outside their area)
    • 18 counties in more than 30 minutes (outside their area)

 

Among the 41 county centres with access to the system solely by road are Piekary Śląskie and Siemianowice Śląskie, which are part of the Upper Silesian-Zagłębie Metropolis, a compact urban area. Therefore, the remaining 39 county centres represent the minimum set for which the need to organise bus connections to integrate them into the national long-distance rail system has been preliminarily assessed. The division of responsibility for these feeder connections between the relevant transport minister and other transport authorities will be addressed during the planned consultation process.

Table 1. List of counties where preliminary justification has been established for organizing bus feeder services to integrate them into the national long-distance rail network

Lp.
Województwo
Powiaty
1
dolnośląskie
polkowicki
2
kujawsko-pomorskie
chełmiński, golubsko-dobrzyński, sępoleński, świecki, żniński
3
lubelskie
opolski
4
lubuskie
strzelecko-drezdenecki, sulęciński
5
łódzkie
rawski
6
małopolskie
dąbrowski, myślenicki, proszowicki
7
mazowieckie
białobrzeski, grójecki, lipski, makowski, przasnyski, pułtuski, węgrowski, zwoleński, żuromiński
8
opolskie
krapkowicki
9
podkarpackie
brzozowski
10
podlaskie
kolneński, sejneński, wysokomazowiecki, zambrowski
11
pomorskie
bytowski, nowodworski
12
śląskie
13
świętokrzyskie
kazimierski, opatowski, pińczowski
14
warmińsko-mazurskie
gołdapski, lidzbarski, nowomiejski, węgorzewski
15
wielkopolskie
16
zachodniopomorskie
myśliborski, pyrzycki

 

Among the 91 counties with access to the system from their administrative centre via regional train, there are 7 cities with county rights (miasto na prawach powiatu in Polish) and 84 land counties (powiat ziemski in Polish). The division of responsibility for feeder services between the Ministry of Infrastructure and other transport authorities will be determined during the planned consultation process.

Table 2. List of counties with access to long-distance trains from their administrative centre via regional train

Lp.
Województwo
Powiaty
(tzw. powiaty ziemskie)
Miasta na prawach powiatu
(tzw. powiaty grodzkie)
1
dolnośląskie
górowski, jaworski, kamiennogórski, lubański, lwówecki, trzebnicki, złotoryjski
2
kujawsko-pomorskie
brodnicki, grudziądzki, lipnowski, radziejowski, rypiński, tucholski
Grudziądz
3
Lubelskie
janowski, lubartowski, łęczyński, parczewski, radzyński, rycki, tomaszowski, włodawski
4
Lubuskie
krośnieński, słubicki, wschowski, żagański, żarski
5
Łódzkie
bełchatowski, brzeziński, pajęczański, poddębicki, wieluński, wieruszowski
6
małopolskie
wadowicki, wielicki
7
mazowieckie
gostyniński, kozienicki, łosicki, ostrołęcki, ostrowski, płocki, płoński, pruszkowski, przysuski, sierpecki, sokołowski, warszawski zachodni, wyszkowski
Ostrołęka, Płock
8
opolskie
głubczycki, namysłowski
9
podkarpackie
bieszczadzki, leski, lubaczowski, strzyżowski
10
podlaskie
bielski, hajnowski, łomżyński, siemiatycki
Łomża
11
pomorskie
człuchowski, kwidzyński, pucki, sztumski
12
śląskie
bieruńsko-lędziński, kłobucki
Jastrzębie-Zdrój, Ruda Śląska, Świętochłowice
13
świętokrzyskie
buski, konecki, staszowski
14
warmińsko-mazurskie
bartoszycki, braniewski, mrągowski, olecki, piski, szczycieński
15
wielkopolskie
czarnkowsko-trzcianecki, gostyński, grodziski, międzychodzki, śremski, turecki, wągrowiecki, wolsztyński
16
zachodniopomorskie
drawski, gryficki, kamieński, policki

 

The remaining 248 counties have direct access to the long-distance trains from the county administrative.

Table 3. List of counties with direct access to the long-distance trains from the county administrative centre

Lp.
Województwo
Powiaty
(tzw. powiaty ziemskie)
Miasta na prawach powiatu
(tzw. powiaty grodzkie)
1
dolnośląskie
bolesławiecki, dzierżoniowski, głogowski, karkonoski, kłodzki, legnicki, lubiński, milicki, oleśnicki, oławski, strzeliński, średzki, świdnicki, wałbrzyski, wołowski, wrocławski, ząbkowicki, zgorzelecki
Jelenia Góra, Legnica, Wałbrzych, Wrocław
2
kujawsko-pomorskie
aleksandrowski, bydgoski, inowrocławski, mogileński, nakielski, toruński, wąbrzeski, włocławski
Bydgoszcz, Toruń, Włocławek
3
Lubelskie
bialski, biłgorajski, chełmski, hrubieszowski, krasnostawski, kraśnicki, lubelski, łukowski, puławski, świdnicki, zamojski
Biała Podlaska, Chełm, Lublin, Zamość
4
Lubuskie
gorzowski, międzyrzecki, nowosolski, świebodziński, zielonogórski
Gorzów Wielkopolski, Zielona Góra
5
Łódzkie
kutnowski, łaski, łęczycki, łowicki, łódzki wschodni, opoczyński, pabianicki, piotrkowski, radomszczański, sieradzki, skierniewicki, tomaszowski, zduńskowolski, zgierski
Łódź, Piotrków Trybunalski, Skierniewice
6
małopolskie
bocheński, brzeski, chrzanowski, gorlicki, krakowski, limanowski, miechowski, nowosądecki, nowotarski, olkuski, oświęcimski, suski, tarnowski, tatrzański
Kraków, Nowy Sącz, Tarnów
7
mazowieckie
ciechanowski, garwoliński, grodziski, legionowski, miński, mławski, nowodworski, otwocki, piaseczyński, radomski, siedlecki, sochaczewski, szydłowiecki, wołomiński, żyrardowski
Warszawa, Radom, Siedlce
8
opolskie
brzeski, kędzierzyńsko-kozielski, kluczborski, nyski, oleski, opolski, prudnicki, strzelecki
Opole
9
podkarpackie
dębicki, jarosławski, jasielski, kolbuszowski, krośnieński, leżajski, łańcucki, mielecki, niżański, przemyski, przeworski, ropczycko-sędziszowski, rzeszowski, sanocki, stalowowolski, tarnobrzeski
Krosno, Przemyśl, Rzeszów, Tarnobrzeg
10
podlaskie
augustowski, białostocki, grajewski, moniecki, sokólski, suwalski
Białystok, Suwałki
11
pomorskie
chojnicki, gdański, kartuski, kościerski, lęborski, malborski, słupski, starogardzki, tczewski, wejherowski
Gdańsk, Gdynia, Słupsk, Sopot
12
śląskie
będziński, bielski, cieszyński, częstochowski, gliwicki, lubliniecki, mikołowski, myszkowski, pszczyński, raciborski, rybnicki, tarnogórski, wodzisławski, zawierciański, żywiecki
Bielsko-Biała, Bytom, Chorzów, Częstochowa, Dąbrowa Górnicza, Gliwice, Jaworzno, Katowice, Mysłowice, Rybnik, Sosnowiec, Tychy, Zabrze, Żory
13
świętokrzyskie
jędrzejowski, kielecki, ostrowiecki, sandomierski, skarżyski, starachowicki, włoszczowski
Kielce
14
warmińsko-mazurskie
działdowski, elbląski, ełcki, giżycki, iławski, kętrzyński, nidzicki, olsztyński, ostródzki
Elbląg, Olsztyn,
15
wielkopolskie
chodzieski, gnieźnieński, jarociński, kaliski, kępiński, kolski, koniński, kościański, krotoszyński, leszczyński, nowotomyski, obornicki, ostrowski, ostrzeszowski, pilski, pleszewski, poznański, rawicki, słupecki, szamotulski, średzki, wrzesiński, złotowski
Kalisz, Konin, Leszno, Poznań
16
zachodniopomorskie
białogardzki, choszczeński, goleniowski, gryfiński, kołobrzeski, koszaliński, łobeski, sławieński, stargardzki, szczecinecki, świdwiński, wałecki
Koszalin, Szczecin, Świnoujście

 

Principles for Commercial Stops 

The information presented here pertains to the working version of the Horizontal Timetable as of 16 July 2024. Due to ongoing project work and the planned consultation process, the adopted solutions will undergo further modifications. This working version is provided to ensure a transparent process for the development of the Horizontal Timetable. The current list of commercial stops does not represent an obligation of the Minister in charge of transport to serve these locations but rather acts as a starting point for planned consultations. More information about the consultation process can be found in the “Consultation Plan” section

The Stops Policy in the Horizontal Timetable 

The key issue in developing the Horizontal Timetable, is the stops policy for different train categories. The goal is to set stable, uniform guidelines across Poland that ensure fair treatment for residents of all regions. 

It is essential to designate stops in a way that balances somewhat opposing objectives: ensuring adequate accessibility to long-distance rail transport (which suggests increasing the number of stops) and providing attractive travel times (which suggests limiting the number of stops). Finding the right balance is crucial for creating an appealing transport offer. Moreover, the integrated and cyclic timetable within the Horizontal Timetable framework is highly sensitive to adding or removing stops, as this prolongs or shortens travel times, which in turn disrupts connections at key stations. Implementing changes in this area while the timetable is in effect will be a challenging and prolonged process due to the need to align many timetable and infrastructure elements (possibly including designing new ones). Therefore, the development, consultation, and agreement on commercial stop rules with the relevant transport authorities will be key to the sustainability of the solutions developed for the Horizontal Timetable. 

 Train Routes in the Horizontal Timetable are divided into: 

  • InterCity trains – Conventional Express Trains (Ex) or High-Speed Trains (HST): These are intended to provide the fastest domestic and international connections, enabling quick travel over long distances. It is also assumed that these are lines with commercial potential. 
  • InterRegio Trains(P): These form the basis of long-distance travel on the Polish railway. They are generally considered to be operated under public service obligations (PSO). 
  • Regio Express Trains (RE): These complement the transport network and ensure territorial coherence but are organized by regional transport authorities. 
  • Regional and Commuter Trains (R): These stop at all stations and stops, managed by entities other than the ministry responsible for transport. Accelerating regional trains on selected railway sections to reduce travel time is possible, for example, when a longer regional line enters a section served by a shorter commuter service. 

Inter-regional trains are to connect settlements of at least county size (including cities with county rights). Consequently, the stop grid has been established based on the following principles: 

InterCity Trains (Ex and HST): 

  • In regional capitals 
  • In major urban centres with more than 50,000 inhabitants 
  • At stations that enhance transport accessibility in large towns (e.g., Wrocław Mikołajów) if this significantly reduces door-to-door travel time for a substantial number of people 
  • In tourist centres generating significant passenger flows 
  • For InterCity connections at the ends of routes, the stop network follows the principles used in the core network for InterRegio trains (see below). This is because passenger flows on these sections are lower, making it more sensible to increase accessibility through additional stops rather than prioritising travel time (e.g., Nowy Targ, Wodzisław Śląski) 
  • At stations critical for national transport services if no fast train service is provided – these are termed synergistic stops (e.g., Świebodzin). This is because, from the perspective of the entire rail system, it is better to add a stop for an InterCity Train than to create a separate train route for a single location, which requires compensation payments and occupies valuable railway capacity 
  • At key stations not meeting other criteria for the InterCity segment if a stop facilitates transfers from a train serving another station that meets these criteria but does not have an InterCity service. For example, stopping in Malbork (population approx. 36,000 – below the 50,000 threshold) enables transfers from Elbląg (over 100,000 residents) to an InterCity train to Warsaw 
  • If coordination is necessary to achieve a consistent cycle in the timetable, aligning the stopping pattern with InterRegio trains is permissible 

 

InterRegio Trains (P): 

  • Rules for InterCity train listed in items 1-4 
  • In county towns or those serving specific counties 
  • In towns with more than 10,000 inhabitants for the core network. The core of the network includes sections that form the main connections with high forecasted passenger volumes 
  • In towns (localities) with more than 5,000 inhabitants on sections outside the core network, i.e., not forming major links and with lower occupancy 
  • In large agglomerations, stops at stations meeting the criteria are limited if this would extend travel time. The absence of stops is compensated by operating commuter or regional trains. This primarily concerns the Warsaw agglomeration and the Upper Silesian-Zagłębie Metropolis, Katowice (GZM). In the Warsaw agglomeration, InterRegio trains stop at the first zone station before the agglomeration, from which there is convenient access by commuter or regional train. In GZM, stops have been limited in some district cities (e.g., Ruda Śląska, Świętochłowice) due to the planned operation of metropolitan railways, which will provide access to nearby stations (e.g., Zabrze, Katowice) 
  • If coordination is necessary to achieve a consistent cycle in the timetable, aligning the stopping pattern with RegioExpress trains is permissible 

 

Both current and historical stop networks for interregional links were reviewed in the process of designing the stop network, along with the provisions of the current transport plan related to existing passenger flows on long-distance services. The aim was to determine if existing stops, which did not meet the new criteria, still had significant passenger traffic due to long-standing travel habits. Exceptions to the rules were permitted in such cases. Specifically, stops listed in the current transport plan with minimal passenger exchange were not included in the Horizontal Timetable for long-distance trains. Additionally, stations with similar isochrones for car travel (analysed at 10, 20, and 30 minutes) were also excluded. 

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Horizon 2035 

The information presented below relates to the draft version of the Horizontal Timetable as of 16 July 2024. Due to ongoing work and the planned consultation process, the adopted solutions will undergo further modifications. This draft facilitates the transparent development of the Horizontal Timetable. It includes only a basic description for one of the several time horizons and general information on the indicators achieved within this horizon. Detailed data will be available during public and industry consultations. More information can be found in the Consultation Plan section

Infrastructure 

The 2034/2035 timetable will be the first to fully utilise the “Y” corridor infrastructure from Warsaw through Łódź to Wrocław and Poznań. This includes the section of Railway Line No. 85 beyond Warsaw Zachodnia, along with the necessary tunnel. It also includes access to Poznań Główny station, adapted for high-speed lines as planned by PLK S.A., and independent access to Wrocław Główny station. Additionally, revitalisation and upgrading projects listed in the National Railway Program until 2030 (with a perspective until 2032), as well as those in the Kolej+ Program until 2029, will be completed. This ensures full functionality for departures from Warsaw and enhances the overall railway network.

 

Train Routes 

The primary focus of the Horizontal Timetable work is on “systemic” train routes, which operate year-round with a daily frequency of four hours or more. Consequently, seasonal trains, including extensions serving tourist centres, are not marked on the map. Night trains are also not shown. However, seasonal, night, and less frequent train routes (such as single trains per day) will still be analysed as part of the Horizontal Timetable. 

DOWNLOAD MAP

The diagram illustrates the network of “systemic” long-distance train routes, featuring InterCity (red) and InterRegio (blue) services. At this stage, it is anticipated that the InterCity trains will operate commercially without requiring any compensation. In contrast, the InterRegio trains are expected to operate under public service obligation (PSO) contracts. 

The Minister responsible for transport, as the public transport authorities, is primarily tasked with overseeing long-distance services, which form the backbone of the railway links in Poland. It is assumed that the core basis for long-distance rail travel should be the network of counties or county seat towns, between which public transport is facilitated. However, it will not always be feasible to run high-frequency long-distance trains everywhere, nor is the railway infrastructure available in all areas (there may be a need for its reconstruction or development). Therefore, under the Horizontal Timetable framework, every county in Poland will be integrated into the long-distance network either directly or via coordinated regional trains or buses. This will ensure efficient transfers to long-distance trains and guarantee that they do not compete with regional services. The national system of train routes will provide a framework for the regional systems managed by local authorities. During Horizontal Timetable consultations, the responsibilities and level of public support required for rail or bus feeder services will be defined in collaboration with the regional authorities. Consequently, the long-distance train services network is shown against a backdrop of railway lines where daily passenger services are desired (indicated in grey). This includes sections where feeder services to long-distance trains are essential for the national system, as well as other regional and agglomeration routes. Additionally, the map highlights the locations of counties preliminarily selected for inclusion in the bus feeder system for long-distance train routes. The division of responsibilities for feeder services between the Minister responsible for transport and other transport authorities will be determined during the planned consultation process. The grey-marked railway lines reflect the system as of 2024, extended by planned reactivations from the Kolej + Programme or other confirmed regional plans.  

InterCity Trains 

InterCity trains, marked in red, will provide the fastest domestic and international connections with a small number of stops, enabling fast travel on the longest routes. 

At the current stage of the Horizontal Timetable work, it is assumed that InterCity services will generally be operated commercially using predefined train routes. Consequently, the train route network in this segment is planned based on a maximum scenario to which future infrastructure capacity will be adjusted. The frequency of predefined train routes in the core network, which includes high-speed lines between Warsaw and Katowice, Kraków, Łódź, Wrocław, or Poznań, is set to every 30 minutes as a starting point for consultations. On the Warsaw–Tricity route, due to limited capacity on Line No. 9, the service frequency will be lower (every hour, with more frequent services during peak times). For the Rzeszów–Kraków–Katowice–Wrocław and Wrocław–Poznań–Bydgoszcz–Gdańsk-Gdynia routes, the frequency will be every hour. Commercial operators can apply for predefined routes from the infrastructure manager (PLK S.A.). Unlike the currently operating open access system in Poland, this will ensure that the infrastructure manager offers them commercially attractive routes at fixed times, coordinated with public service obligation services. The actual number of trains offered as a commercial service may be lower than the number of routes designed for the Horizontal Timetable. Additionally, the route supply will be designed to allow at least two operators to run trains within the same transport corridor. A competitive procedure for allocating predefined routes by the infrastructure manager may favour maximising capacity utilisation (more trains or larger train capacities). This mechanism would enhance the utilisation of available routes by train operators. Furthermore, competition among two or three operators on a given route is expected to keep ticket prices at acceptable levels, even on high-speed train routes. The allocation mechanism based on predefined train routes does not exclude the use of open access mode for any unused capacity. 

The proposed parameters and stops for InterCity trains at the current stage of work on the Horizontal Timetable will be subject to consultations, including those with potential train operators. This particularly concerns stops and maximum speeds achieved on high-speed lines, including the scope of servicing CPK stations. More information on the currently adopted Horizontal Timetable stop policy can be found in the Principles for Stops section. 

Inter-City Train Services from 2035 

The long-distance train routes to be offered from 2035 will be based on both high-speed and conventional infrastructure: 

  • Central Railway Line, forming the main rail axis connecting Warsaw, Katowice, and Kraków 
  • Corridor “Y” Warsaw – Łódź – Wrocław / Poznań 
  • Corridor Rzeszów – Kraków – Katowice – Wrocław – Poznań 
  • Corridor Wrocław – Poznań – Gdańsk 
  • Railway section Warsaw – Białystok 
  • Railway section Poznań – Szczecin 

 

The main InterCity train routes on the above mentioned railway links are: 

  • Warsaw – Łódź – Poznań – Szczecin / Berlin (train routes KDP01, KDP11, KDP33) 
  • Białystok / Lublin – Warsaw – Łódź – Wrocław – Jelenia Góra (train routes KDP02, KDP25, KDP26) 
  • Zakopane / Nowy Sącz – Kraków – Warsaw – Gdańsk – Kołobrzeg / Białystok – Rail Baltica (train routes KDP04, KDP07, KDP09, KDP37) 
  • Prague / Vienna / Budapest – Katowice – Warsaw (train routes KDP03P, KDP03W, KDP03B), 
  • Wisła / Żywiec – Bielsko-Biała / Gliwice / Rybnik – Katowice – Warsaw – Gdańsk (train routes KDP20, KDP21, KDP27, KDP31) 
  • Kraków – Łódź – Poznań – Szczecin (train routes KDP10) 
  • Przemyśl – Rzeszów – Kraków – Katowice – Wrocław – Zielona Góra – Berlin (train routes Ex51 and Ex55) 
  • Prague / Jelenia Góra – Wrocław – Poznań – Bydgoszcz – Gdańsk (train routes Ex05 and Ex18) 

 

InterRegio Trains 

InterRegio trains, marked in blue, will form the core of the long-distance rail services network in Poland and will have a denser stop pattern compared to InterCity trains. The basic assumption is to serve county capitals as well as other major towns, tourist centres, and transfer hubs. More details on the stop policy can be found in the Principles for Stops section. 

In the InterRegio segment, the base minimum frequency for a single train route is set at every 2 hours. Exceptionally, at the ends of routes, on railway sections with lower potential, or where there is insufficient capacity (e.g., single-track lines), an every 4-hour frequency is permissible. On many railway sections, individual train routes are coordinated to achieve better joint frequencies, such as every hour. The developed service grid is scalable, allowing modular addition or removal of trains without disrupting the entire system, depending on the service provider’s financial capabilities or the availability of rolling stock. 

The main InterRegio train routes: 

  • Berlin – Szczecin – Słupsk – Gdańsk – Olsztyn – Białystok (train route P01) 
  • Zielona Góra / Gorzów Wielkopolski – Poznań – Warsaw – Lublin – Chełm / Białystok – Suwałki (train routes P04, P05) 
  • Kołobrzeg / Ustka – Białogard – Piła – Poznań – Wrocław – Opole – Katowice – Kraków – Rzeszów – Przemyśl (train routes P10, P40) 
  • Świnoujście – Szczecin – Poznań – Ostrów Wielkopolski –Katowice – Kraków (train route P29) 
  • Szczecin – Zielona Góra – Wrocław – Kędzierzyn Koźle – Rybnik – Bielsko-Biała (train route P03) 
  • Opole – Częstochowa – Piotrków Trybunalski – Warsaw – Olsztynek – Olsztyn (train route P13) 
  • Wrocław – Krotoszyn – Ostrów Wielkopolski – Kalisz – Łódź – Warsaw – Siedlce – Terespol (train route P15) 
  • Cieszyn – Bielsko-Biała – Katowice – Częstochowa – Łódź – Kutno – Toruń – Bydgoszcz – Gdańsk (train route P11) 
  • Kraków – Kielce – Radom – Warsaw – Iława – Gdańsk – Władysławowo / Olsztyn (communication lines P12, P42) 
  • Kołobrzeg – Piła – Bydgoszcz – Kutno – Warsaw – Lublin – Stalowa Wola – Rzeszów / Zamość (train routes P32, P33) 
  • Warsaw – Radom – Skarżysko Kamienna – Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski – Tarnobrzeg – Rzeszów (train route P54) 

 

Operational and Transport Performance 

The annual operational performance, based on the predefined train routes offered in the Horizontal Timetable amounts to 71 million train-km in the InterCity market segment and 72 million train-km in the InterRegio market segment. This totals 143 million train-km. These values are maximums, to which the infrastructure capacity will be adjusted. This does not mean that exactly this amount of operational performance will be achieved, as it may depend on factors such as rolling stock availability, the carriers’ ability to organise services, or the transport authorities’ budget capabilities to finance trains operated under the public service obligation (PSO). However, it is recommended to strive for these specified values, as they yield the appropriate effects for passengers. Furthermore, the timetable structure in the Horizontal Timetable is scalable, allowing incremental and evolutionary additions of trains according to the same pattern, depending on available resources. This feature allows gradual and modular development of the desired network structure without interfering with the existing timetable. 

Traffic forecasts using the Passenger Transport Model (PTM) indicate that such a defined and coordinated service offer could result in between 87 and 102 million passengers annually in the long-distance segment. The result varies depending on whether pessimistic or optimistic assumptions about factors affecting transport behaviour are adopted. These factors include national transport policy, sensitivity to fuel prices affecting intermodal competition, market liberalisation stimulating transport, the “novelty” effect of introducing high-speed trains, the amount of induced traffic due to service extensions, and the delineation between long-distance and regional segments for medium-distance travel. Demographic factors also play a role. According to the average population forecast by the Polish Central Statistical Office in the Passenger Transport Model, Poland is expected to have 36.2 million residents in 2035, which is lower than the current figure. 

It is important to emphasise that these results pertain to the year 2035, when only the “Y” Warsaw–Wrocław / Poznań high-speed line is expected to be in service. These results should not be compared to figures communicated by CPK in a different context or for the 2050 horizon, when the entire high-speed network is planned to be operational.