Horizon 2035
Horizon 2035
Horizon 2035
The information presented below relates to the draft version of the Horizontal Timetable as of 16 July 2024. Due to ongoing work and the planned consultation process, the adopted solutions will undergo further modifications. This draft facilitates the transparent development of the Horizontal Timetable. It includes only a basic description for one of the several time horizons and general information on the indicators achieved within this horizon. Detailed data will be available during public and industry consultations. More information can be found in the Consultation Plan section.
Infrastructure
The 2034/2035 timetable will be the first to fully utilise the “Y” corridor infrastructure from Warsaw through Łódź to Wrocław and Poznań. This includes the section of Railway Line No. 85 beyond Warsaw Zachodnia, along with the necessary tunnel. It also includes access to Poznań Główny station, adapted for high-speed lines as planned by PLK S.A., and independent access to Wrocław Główny station. Additionally, revitalisation and upgrading projects listed in the National Railway Program until 2030 (with a perspective until 2032), as well as those in the Kolej+ Program until 2029, will be completed. This ensures full functionality for departures from Warsaw and enhances the overall railway network.
Train Routes
The primary focus of the Horizontal Timetable work is on “systemic” train routes, which operate year-round with a daily frequency of four hours or more. Consequently, seasonal trains, including extensions serving tourist centres, are not marked on the map. Night trains are also not shown. However, seasonal, night, and less frequent train routes (such as single trains per day) will still be analysed as part of the Horizontal Timetable.
The diagram illustrates the network of “systemic” long-distance train routes, featuring InterCity (red) and InterRegio (blue) services. At this stage, it is anticipated that the InterCity trains will operate commercially without requiring any compensation. In contrast, the InterRegio trains are expected to operate under public service obligation (PSO) contracts.
The Minister responsible for transport, as the public transport authorities, is primarily tasked with overseeing long-distance services, which form the backbone of the railway links in Poland. It is assumed that the core basis for long-distance rail travel should be the network of counties or county seat towns, between which public transport is facilitated. However, it will not always be feasible to run high-frequency long-distance trains everywhere, nor is the railway infrastructure available in all areas (there may be a need for its reconstruction or development). Therefore, under the Horizontal Timetable framework, every county in Poland will be integrated into the long-distance network either directly or via coordinated regional trains or buses. This will ensure efficient transfers to long-distance trains and guarantee that they do not compete with regional services. The national system of train routes will provide a framework for the regional systems managed by local authorities. During Horizontal Timetable consultations, the responsibilities and level of public support required for rail or bus feeder services will be defined in collaboration with the regional authorities. Consequently, the long-distance train services network is shown against a backdrop of railway lines where daily passenger services are desired (indicated in grey). This includes sections where feeder services to long-distance trains are essential for the national system, as well as other regional and agglomeration routes. Additionally, the map highlights the locations of counties preliminarily selected for inclusion in the bus feeder system for long-distance train routes. The division of responsibilities for feeder services between the Minister responsible for transport and other transport authorities will be determined during the planned consultation process. The grey-marked railway lines reflect the system as of 2024, extended by planned reactivations from the Kolej + Programme or other confirmed regional plans.
InterCity Trains
InterCity trains, marked in red, will provide the fastest domestic and international connections with a small number of stops, enabling fast travel on the longest routes.
At the current stage of the Horizontal Timetable work, it is assumed that InterCity services will generally be operated commercially using predefined train routes. Consequently, the train route network in this segment is planned based on a maximum scenario to which future infrastructure capacity will be adjusted. The frequency of predefined train routes in the core network, which includes high-speed lines between Warsaw and Katowice, Kraków, Łódź, Wrocław, or Poznań, is set to every 30 minutes as a starting point for consultations. On the Warsaw–Tricity route, due to limited capacity on Line No. 9, the service frequency will be lower (every hour, with more frequent services during peak times). For the Rzeszów–Kraków–Katowice–Wrocław and Wrocław–Poznań–Bydgoszcz–Gdańsk-Gdynia routes, the frequency will be every hour. Commercial operators can apply for predefined routes from the infrastructure manager (PLK S.A.). Unlike the currently operating open access system in Poland, this will ensure that the infrastructure manager offers them commercially attractive routes at fixed times, coordinated with public service obligation services. The actual number of trains offered as a commercial service may be lower than the number of routes designed for the Horizontal Timetable. Additionally, the route supply will be designed to allow at least two operators to run trains within the same transport corridor. A competitive procedure for allocating predefined routes by the infrastructure manager may favour maximising capacity utilisation (more trains or larger train capacities). This mechanism would enhance the utilisation of available routes by train operators. Furthermore, competition among two or three operators on a given route is expected to keep ticket prices at acceptable levels, even on high-speed train routes. The allocation mechanism based on predefined train routes does not exclude the use of open access mode for any unused capacity.
The proposed parameters and stops for InterCity trains at the current stage of work on the Horizontal Timetable will be subject to consultations, including those with potential train operators. This particularly concerns stops and maximum speeds achieved on high-speed lines, including the scope of servicing CPK stations. More information on the currently adopted Horizontal Timetable stop policy can be found in the Principles for Stops section.
Inter-City Train Services from 2035
The long-distance train routes to be offered from 2035 will be based on both high-speed and conventional infrastructure:
- Central Railway Line, forming the main rail axis connecting Warsaw, Katowice, and Kraków
- Corridor “Y” Warsaw – Łódź – Wrocław / Poznań
- Corridor Rzeszów – Kraków – Katowice – Wrocław – Poznań
- Corridor Wrocław – Poznań – Gdańsk
- Railway section Warsaw – Białystok
- Railway section Poznań – Szczecin
The main InterCity train routes on the above mentioned railway links are:
- Warsaw – Łódź – Poznań – Szczecin / Berlin (train routes KDP01, KDP11, KDP33)
- Białystok / Lublin – Warsaw – Łódź – Wrocław – Jelenia Góra (train routes KDP02, KDP25, KDP26)
- Zakopane / Nowy Sącz – Kraków – Warsaw – Gdańsk – Kołobrzeg / Białystok – Rail Baltica (train routes KDP04, KDP07, KDP09, KDP37)
- Prague / Vienna / Budapest – Katowice – Warsaw (train routes KDP03P, KDP03W, KDP03B),
- Wisła / Żywiec – Bielsko-Biała / Gliwice / Rybnik – Katowice – Warsaw – Gdańsk (train routes KDP20, KDP21, KDP27, KDP31)
- Kraków – Łódź – Poznań – Szczecin (train routes KDP10)
- Przemyśl – Rzeszów – Kraków – Katowice – Wrocław – Zielona Góra – Berlin (train routes Ex51 and Ex55)
- Prague / Jelenia Góra – Wrocław – Poznań – Bydgoszcz – Gdańsk (train routes Ex05 and Ex18)
InterRegio Trains
InterRegio trains, marked in blue, will form the core of the long-distance rail services network in Poland and will have a denser stop pattern compared to InterCity trains. The basic assumption is to serve county capitals as well as other major towns, tourist centres, and transfer hubs. More details on the stop policy can be found in the Principles for Stops section.
In the InterRegio segment, the base minimum frequency for a single train route is set at every 2 hours. Exceptionally, at the ends of routes, on railway sections with lower potential, or where there is insufficient capacity (e.g., single-track lines), an every 4-hour frequency is permissible. On many railway sections, individual train routes are coordinated to achieve better joint frequencies, such as every hour. The developed service grid is scalable, allowing modular addition or removal of trains without disrupting the entire system, depending on the service provider’s financial capabilities or the availability of rolling stock.
The main InterRegio train routes:
- Berlin – Szczecin – Słupsk – Gdańsk – Olsztyn – Białystok (train route P01)
- Zielona Góra / Gorzów Wielkopolski – Poznań – Warsaw – Lublin – Chełm / Białystok – Suwałki (train routes P04, P05)
- Kołobrzeg / Ustka – Białogard – Piła – Poznań – Wrocław – Opole – Katowice – Kraków – Rzeszów – Przemyśl (train routes P10, P40)
- Świnoujście – Szczecin – Poznań – Ostrów Wielkopolski –Katowice – Kraków (train route P29)
- Szczecin – Zielona Góra – Wrocław – Kędzierzyn Koźle – Rybnik – Bielsko-Biała (train route P03)
- Opole – Częstochowa – Piotrków Trybunalski – Warsaw – Olsztynek – Olsztyn (train route P13)
- Wrocław – Krotoszyn – Ostrów Wielkopolski – Kalisz – Łódź – Warsaw – Siedlce – Terespol (train route P15)
- Cieszyn – Bielsko-Biała – Katowice – Częstochowa – Łódź – Kutno – Toruń – Bydgoszcz – Gdańsk (train route P11)
- Kraków – Kielce – Radom – Warsaw – Iława – Gdańsk – Władysławowo / Olsztyn (communication lines P12, P42)
- Kołobrzeg – Piła – Bydgoszcz – Kutno – Warsaw – Lublin – Stalowa Wola – Rzeszów / Zamość (train routes P32, P33)
- Warsaw – Radom – Skarżysko Kamienna – Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski – Tarnobrzeg – Rzeszów (train route P54)
Operational and Transport Performance
The annual operational performance, based on the predefined train routes offered in the Horizontal Timetable amounts to 71 million train-km in the InterCity market segment and 72 million train-km in the InterRegio market segment. This totals 143 million train-km. These values are maximums, to which the infrastructure capacity will be adjusted. This does not mean that exactly this amount of operational performance will be achieved, as it may depend on factors such as rolling stock availability, the carriers’ ability to organise services, or the transport authorities’ budget capabilities to finance trains operated under the public service obligation (PSO). However, it is recommended to strive for these specified values, as they yield the appropriate effects for passengers. Furthermore, the timetable structure in the Horizontal Timetable is scalable, allowing incremental and evolutionary additions of trains according to the same pattern, depending on available resources. This feature allows gradual and modular development of the desired network structure without interfering with the existing timetable.
Traffic forecasts using the Passenger Transport Model (PTM) indicate that such a defined and coordinated service offer could result in between 87 and 102 million passengers annually in the long-distance segment. The result varies depending on whether pessimistic or optimistic assumptions about factors affecting transport behaviour are adopted. These factors include national transport policy, sensitivity to fuel prices affecting intermodal competition, market liberalisation stimulating transport, the “novelty” effect of introducing high-speed trains, the amount of induced traffic due to service extensions, and the delineation between long-distance and regional segments for medium-distance travel. Demographic factors also play a role. According to the average population forecast by the Polish Central Statistical Office in the Passenger Transport Model, Poland is expected to have 36.2 million residents in 2035, which is lower than the current figure.
It is important to emphasise that these results pertain to the year 2035, when only the “Y” Warsaw–Wrocław / Poznań high-speed line is expected to be in service. These results should not be compared to figures communicated by CPK in a different context or for the 2050 horizon, when the entire high-speed network is planned to be operational.