Over the next decade, the Polish railway sector is poised for significant changes. These changes will be driven by the liberalization of transport in accordance with EU regulations known as the Fourth Railway Package, the inauguration of services on newly constructed high-speed lines, and the need to enhance the transport accessibility of long-distance services. 

While these changes offer a significant opportunity to improve the appeal of the passenger rail sector in line with societal needs and expectations, they pose a challenge for the industry, necessitating proper preparation to adapt and fully capitalize on these opportunities. 

The first catalyst for these changes is the liberalization of rail transport, driven by the principles of the Fourth Railway Package and the expiration, in December 2030, of the framework agreement for public service provision in domestic and international rail transport between the Ministry of Infrastructure and PKP Intercity S.A. Future operators of subsidized transport (the so-called PSO – public service obligation) will be selected through competitive tenders. Additionally, it is anticipated that some of the currently subsidized transport will be operated commercially without state compensation. Commercial transport will also be stimulated by improvements in the technical parameters of the Polish railway network and the introduction of market competition. Competitive mechanisms are expected to increase the number of long-distance rail connections and reduce ticket prices on major routes without additional budgetary involvement. More information can be found in the section: Market Liberalization and HRJ. 

The other key factor shaping the future of rail in Poland is the construction of new high-speed lines by CPK, which, combined with the upgrade of key existing railway sections by PLK S.A. (the Polish railway infrastructure manager), will significantly reduce travel times on many domestic and international long-distance routes. High-speed line connections will extend beyond the infrastructure of these lines, creating a network effect for residents in many regions of Poland. However, reduced travel time is one of the benefits of modern infrastructure. The increased capacity on high-speed lines will stimulate the liberalisation of the Polish rail transport market. Furthermore, by shifting some long-distance routes to high-speed lines, additional capacity will be created on existing lines, allowing them to accommodate more regional, agglomeration, and freight trains. Therefore, the beneficiaries of high-speed rail are not limited to the customers of fast trains; many more people will indirectly benefit from these changes. 

The third aspect is the growing social demand for an appealing transport offer that provides better access to long-distance services. In the regional transport segment, there is a significant transport exclusion, as many towns suffer from a lack of connections due to their scarcity or complete absence, hindering convenient and flexible travel. The minister in charge of transportation is primarily responsible for long-distance transport, which forms the “backbone” of connections within the country. It is assumed that counties (county seat cities) should serve as the base for long-distance connections, with the system facilitating seamless travel by public transport between them. 

However, it will not be feasible to create high-frequency long-distance rail connections everywhere, nor does railway infrastructure exist in all areas (though there is justification for its reconstruction or construction). Therefore, according to the Horizontal Timetable assumptions, each county in the country will be included in the long-distance connection network either directly or through coordinated regional trains or buses. This will ensure smooth transfers to long-distance connections and guarantee that they do not compete with regional ones. The national interconnectivity system will form the basis for regional systems created by the regional authorities (voivodeship marshals). During the Horizontal Timetable consultations, the responsibility and level of support for feeder rail or bus connections will be determined jointly with the regional authorities. 

The above conditions will positively impact the rail transport system, provided it is adequately prepared, which requires proper coordination of all elements. Therefore, a systematic approach to shaping the network of connections is necessary. The timetable for long-distance, regional, and agglomeration trains must be integrated and based on a clock-face schedule. This timetable will be developed within the Horizontal Timetable Project in cooperation with all key stakeholders. The tasks carried out within this project will not be limited to preparing the timetable but will also include a range of actions related to adapting laws to new principles. Developed based on traffic forecasts and capacity analyses, stable for years, and consulted with relevant stakeholders, the assumptions of the Horizontal Timetable should become the foundation for organizing and planning the entire railway sector in Poland.